Fables of Faubus?: Testing the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands Using a Simplified Kalman Filter Model

The presence of structural breaks can seriously affect the outcome of standard regression methods like OLS. Although there are many methods available to deal with them, we focus here on a particular linear filtering method, namely the Kalman Filter. Its results vis a vis a regular OLS approach are illustrated by testing the sectoral shift hypothesis in the Netherlands. Although a rather simplified version of the Kalman Filter is used, it turns out to be a sufficient enough approximation. What we find, is that the variables capturing the sectoral shift hypothesis are the most important in explaining Dutch unemployment behaviour during the postwar period. Thus, the hypo-thesis is endorsed. On the other hand, our highly significant constant term indicates that the inclusion of other variables affecting unemploy-ment may alter the results. Our conclusion thus is a tentative one.labour economics ;

The Applicability of the Sectoral Shift Hypothesis in the Netherlands

The sectoral shift hypothesis in the Netherlands cannot be easily tested for the presence of rigorous structural breaks in the data. Therefore, a Kalman Filter approach is adopted. What we find, is that the variables capturing the sectoral shift hypothesis are the most important in explaining Dutch unemployment behavior during the postwar period. This means that cyclical unemployment in the Netherlands can be viewed as a fluctuation of the natural rate of unemployment.unemployment; sectoral shift hypothesis

Determinants Of Sectoral Average Wage and Employment Growth Rates in a Specific Factors Model with Production Externalities and International Capital Movements

The cost-minimization part of a specific factors model with perfect capital movements and production externalities for both perfect and imperfect competition is used here to explain the growth rate of wages as a function of technical change, terms of trade or import changes, interest rate changes and the growth rate of the labour supply. Our estimation of the perfect competition model for 67 combinations of countries and sectors yields the result that technical change explains a higher percentage of both wage and employment growth than changes in the terms of trade do before the 1980s. From the 1980s onwards international trade is slightly more influential than technical progress. Much more important than these two are changes in the sector specific labour supply in all countries but the UK. In the UK terms of trade changes matter most. However, since we cannot exclude increasing returns, a model with imperfect competition is also estimated. Results support those from perfect competition. Ultimately, as compared to other literature, we identify some more sectors that seem to have been negatively affected by international trade. Finally, we consider policy conclusions.labour economics ;

The Impact of Technology on Economic Growth: Some New Ideas and Empirical Considerations

R&D based models relating technical change and economic growth have been unsuccessful in explaining the recent productivity paradox: R&D efforts have risen continuously in advanced countries during the postwar period whereas productivity growth has, if anything, declined. Several explanations of the paradox are offered, together with empirical ways of testing them. The notion that R&D efforts are more and more attributed to product differentiation, thus enlarging consumers'' welfare while simultaneously exhibiting only limited effects on economic growth, looks very promising in explaining the productivity paradox.research and development ;

A binary signature in the non-thermal radio-emitter Cyg OB2 #9

Aims: Non-thermal radio emission associated with massive stars is believed to arise from a wind-wind collision in a binary system. However, the evidence of binarity is still lacking in some cases, notably Cyg OB2 #9 Methods: For several years, we have been monitoring this heavily-reddened star from various observatories. This campaign allowed us to probe variations both on short and long timescales and constitutes the first in-depth study of the visible spectrum of this object. Results: Our observations provide the very first direct evidence of a companion in Cyg OB2 #9, confirming the theoretical wind-wind collision scenario. These data suggest a highly eccentric orbit with a period of a few years, compatible with the 2yr-timescale measured in the radio range. In addition, the signature of the wind-wind collision is very likely reflected in the behaviour of some emission lines.Comment: accepted by A&A, 4 p, 3figure